Archipelago and Peninsula

Jan 05, 2024

UPDATE: Plagued by an unfolding political fundraising scandal that has engulfed several factions of his ruling Liberal Democratic Party, the future of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is in doubt for 2024, the year its leadership race is to be held.

A 7.5 magnitude earthquake struck central Japan on Monday afternoon, collapsing buildings, causing fires and triggering tsunami alerts as far away as eastern Russia, prompting orders for residents to evacuate affected coastal areas of Japan.

“The North Korean threat is motivating greater trilateral cooperation among the US, Japan, and South Korea, including real-time sharing of missile tracking data. Officials in Seoul knew this ICBM test was coming, and had coordinated in advance with partners in Washington and Tokyo,”

Subscribe now

Kishida loses non-faction lawmakers

By Kyodo News

Plagued by an unfolding political fundraising scandal that has engulfed several factions of his ruling Liberal Democratic Party, the future of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is in doubt for 2024, the year its leadership race is to be held.

But clear moves to replace Kishida as the LDP's president may not be seen until the initial budget for the fiscal year from April 2024 is passed in parliament under his administration, with the interim period likely to be used to seek out a popular successor, political pundits said.

With the public growing increasingly weary of financial scandals in politics involving factions within the LDP, unaffiliated lawmakers are expected to come under the spotlight as potential candidates for the leadership position, they said.

In the first half of 2023, much attention was paid to when Kishida would dissolve the House of Representatives, as he apparently sought to bolster his political clout by winning a snap election before the LDP presidential race scheduled for September 2024.

The four-year terms of current lower house members will expire in October 2025 unless a prime minister dissolves the chamber.

After Kishida hosted a Group of Seven summit in May in his home constituency of Hiroshima, speculation about a dissolution surged further, as he gained popularity by pitching his vision of a world without nuclear weapons in the first city to be struck by an atomic bomb.

Nevertheless, his approval ratings continued plummeting later in 2023 against a backdrop of increasing public frustration over soaring prices, coupled with insufficient wage growth and a series of scandals involving his government and LDP officials.

A crucial blow was the recent uncovering of a secret slush funds scandal involving five major LDP factions, including the fourth-largest group headed by Kishida until early December, all of which are alleged to have underreported revenue from political fundraising events.

Among them, the largest faction, previously led by slain former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, is suspected of having pooled hundreds of millions of yen from fundraising party revenues that its members raised from ticket sales to create secret slush funds.

Prosecutors have started investigating the Abe faction and another one headed by former Secretary General Toshihiro Nikai on suspicion of violating the political funds control law, taking a heavy toll on the LDP and Kishida's administration.

The approval rating for Kishida's Cabinet tumbled to a fresh low of 22.3 percent in the latest survey by Kyodo News in mid-December, well below 30 percent, widely regarded as the "danger level" for a government. The support rate for the LDP also plunged.

Masahiro Iwasaki, a political science professor at Nihon University, said Kishida "cannot do anything to change the status quo," with some other analysts agreeing that his low popular support has fanned expectations that he will step down sometime soon.

Many LDP lawmakers, however, are unlikely to try to oust Kishida as the party's chief at least until the passage of the draft budget, as they likely want to compel him to take full responsibility for the funds scandal, which is certain to be scrutinized in parliament.

If the LDP selects a new leader, who would be the next prime minister due to its dominance in the Diet, he or she would face a grilling by the opposition camp over the scandal in the upcoming ordinary parliamentary session from January, denting the new administration.

Kishida has been invited to the United States by President Joe Biden as a state guest in early 2024, which will likely be treated as his "graduation trip," one of the analysts said, adding he would be unable to run in the next LDP leadership election.

Around the time of Kishida's state visit to the United States, possibly in March, battles to become the next LDP president and prime minister are set to intensify.

Former Prime Minister Taro Aso, who worked behind the scenes as a "kingmaker" to establish Kishida's government, has been aiming to promote LDP Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi, a veteran lawmaker, as the party's leader, sources close to them said.

Such a development indicates that the factions led by Aso and Motegi, two powerful LDP groups that have been prominent since the Kishida administration was launched in October 2021, have ditched the prime minister, the analysts said.

Iwasaki, meanwhile, said that unaffiliated lawmakers are supposed to play a significant role in shaping a new LDP down the road in light of the public's negative perception of money scandals involving the ruling party's factions.

LDP factions have traditionally provided their members with election funding and recommended them for ministerial posts. Critics have pointed out that the groups having such functions within the party have prompted them to generate secret funds through fundraising events and other means.

Given the public's distrust of LDP members who belong to factions, one of the frontrunners for becoming the party's new leader is former Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba, an unaffiliated lawmaker who ranks top as a future prime minister in some media polls, Iwasaki said.

Despite his popularity among voters, Ishiba has struggled to garner support from ruling lawmakers as he once left the party in an attempt to topple the then LDP-led government in 1993. Since returning in 1997, he has lost the LDP presidential race four times.

But lawmakers might back Ishiba as the leader to "weather the current situation and win the next lower house election, regardless of their personal preferences, based on the LDP's way of thinking" which consists of members jumping on the bandwagon, Iwasaki said.

Shinichi Nishikawa, a political science professor at Meiji University, said the next premier may carefully consider the timing of dissolving the lower house until the funds scandal subsides while keeping an eye on the movement of the opposition bloc.

"The LDP will wait until opposition parties become divided again, although they have been united recently amid the tremendous scandal," Nishikawa said.

Massive earthquake hits Japan, triggering tsunami warnings

By Emiko Jozuka

The earthquake left six people dead in Ishikawa prefecture, and dozens have been injured in four other prefectures, including Toyama and Niigata, Japanese public broadcaster NHK reported, citing hospitals and local authorities.

The earthquake struck at 4:10 p.m. local time at a depth of 10 kilometers (6 miles) in the Noto Peninsula of Ishikawa prefecture, according to the United States Geological Survey (USGS).

The Japan Meteorological Agency immediately issued a tsunami warning along coastal regions of western Japan, and the first waves were reported hitting the coast just over 10 minutes later.

Some of the first reports came from the city of Wajima in Ishikawa prefecture, which saw tsunami waves of around 1.2 meters (3.9 feet) around 4:21 p.m., according to NHK. No immediate damage was reported. The tsunami warnings along portions of Japan’s western coast were later removed.

The defense ministry dispatched 1,000 military personnel to help the rescue and recovery efforts, Defense Minister Minoru Kihara told reporters earlier Monday.

Suzu city officials in Ishikawa told CNN that buildings have been damaged and there were reports of injuries. Police in the city said some people were trapped in damaged houses, according to NHK.

Hospital officials in Suzu said they received injured people, adding that some doctors were unable to make it to work because of damaged roads, NHK reported.

The Japan Meteorological Agency issued a “major tsunami warning” – the first since 2011’s devastating earthquake – for Noto but later downgraded it to a “tsunami warning.”

Tsunami warnings were later canceled as the threat of further tsunami waves diminished, though advisories for waves up to 1 meter (3 feet) continue.

Under Japan’s tsunami warning system, waves expected less than 1 meter fall under “tsunami advisory,” while those expected up to 3 meters fall under “tsunami warning” and waves expected above 5 meters fall under “major tsunami warning.”

‘The whole room was shaking’

Footage from NHK showed cameras shaking vigorously as waves slammed into the coastline when the quake hit Ishikawa prefecture.

Houses were also rocked by the earthquake, with images showing collapsed roofs and shaken foundations.

An eyewitness reported seeing people “panicked” as the ground started shaking while he waited for a bus home in western Japan.

“You can see all the snow from the the electric wire goes down, and also (the snow) from the roof fell down and all the cars are shaking. And so everybody was panicked at that time,” Taiwanese tourist Johnny Wu told Reuters.

Meanwhile, Baldwin Chia, a 38-year-old tourist from Shanghai who was with a group of snowboarders when the quake hit, told Reuters: “The whole room was shaking, the TV was shaking. I had to keep everything on the table. … I did feel safe in my room, though. But everything else was shaking.”

Some services of Japan’s Shinkansen bullet trains were halted, and nearly 1,400 passengers were stranded inside the immobile high-speed trains for more than 11 hours, NHK reported, citing Japan Railways West.

Social media videos showed the aftermath of the quake, with store aisles strewn with goods. One clip filmed from inside a train showed signposts on the platform rocking intensely with the tremor.

More than 32,500 homes in Ishikawa prefecture were left without power following the quake, according to the Hokuriku Electric Power Company.

Japan’s Kansai Electric Power Company said in a statement on X that no abnormality had been reported at nuclear plants in the area.

Yoshimasa Hayashi, the chief cabinet secretary, said the power converter at the Shika nuclear power plant in Ishikawa had been affected but with “no major results.” Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority reported no problems were found with the reactors at the power plant, NHK reported.

The powerful quake was followed by a series of strong aftershocks, according to the USGS.

A 6.2 magnitude aftershock at a depth of 10 kilometers (6 miles) struck at 4:18 p.m. local time around 4 kilometers (2.4 miles) southwest of Anamizu, according to the USGS.

Some 58 kilometers (about 36 miles) away, tremors of 5.2 magnitude were recorded, and another 5.6 magnitude aftershock was reported closer to the initial quake, according to the USGS.

USGS seismologist Jessica Turner in the Golden, Colorado, office told CNN on Monday there have been 31 aftershocks since the quake. “Normally with quakes of this size, we can see aftershocks for the next several days to a week, but (they) can go as long as several months,” Turner said.

Japan’s weather agency warned that powerful aftershocks could continue over the next three days to a week, and cautioned of potential building collapses and landslides.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said authorities were working to assess potential damage in affected areas.

Tsunami waves reported

Waves of less than a meter were reported in a number of other areas along Japan’s western coast, including 80-centimeter waves in Toyama city, 40-centimeter waves in Kashiwazaki and Kanazawa port, and 20-centimeter waves in Tobishima island and Sado island.

The South Korean Meteorological Administration said it was watching for possible sea level changes in the east coast areas of Gangneung, Yang Yang and Goseong of Gangwon Province and Pohang City.

A tsunami threat was also declared in the eastern Russian cities of Vladivostok and Nakhodka and the island of Sakhalin – as the areas face the western coast of Japan – Russian state media TASS reported. No evacuations have been reported so far.

Pyongyang uninspired by ROK actions

By Chen Heather and Seo Yoonjung (amended)

Kim said inter-Korean relations had become “a relationship between two hostile countries and two belligerents at war,” the state-run news agency KCNA reported.

“It’s time for us to acknowledge the reality and clarify our relationship with the South,” Kim said, adding that if Washington and Seoul were to attempt a military confrontation with Pyongyang, its “nuclear war deterrent will not hesitate to take serious action.”

“I believe that it is a mistake that we must no longer make to deal with the people who declare us as ‘the main enemy’ and seek only opportunities for ‘[our] regime collapse’ and ‘unification by absorption’ by collaborating for reconciliation and unification,” Kim added.

North and South Korea have been cut off from each other since the end of the Korean War in 1953 which ended with an armistice. The two sides are still technically at war, but both governments have long sought the goal of one day reunifying.

Relations have ebbed and flowed over the decades, but tensions have remained particularly high in more recent years after Kim Jong Un ramped up the country’s nuclear weapons program in defiance of international sanctions.

Last week, KCNA reported that Kim had instructed the country’s army, munitions industry, nuclear weapons and civil defense sectors to accelerate war preparations in response to “confrontation moves” by the US.

At the time, KCNA described the political and military situation on the Korean Peninsula as “grave,” saying it had reached an “extreme” point because of Washington.

Kim’s latest comments on reunification were significant, according to Hoo Chiew-Ping, a senior fellow at the East Asian International Relations CAUCUS (EAIR) and member of the Asia Pacific Nuclear Advisory Panel (APNAP), who said the North Korean leader has been increasingly walking away from “inter-Korean relations” in recent years.

“This will mark a critical milestone on the Korean Peninsula where extending the olive branch by future South Korean administrations will be vehemently rejected by North Korea,” Hoo told CNN.

Pyongyang was keener to further relations instead with current allies like “China and Russia, and a selected network of countries around the world which will continue to enable its proliferation and financial outreach,” she added.

“The US, South Korea and Japan are excluded from Kim’s strategic outreach for now.”

Ja Ian Chong, an associate professor of political science and nonresident scholar at Carnegie China, said Kim’s speech “reflects the reality that unification is not a short or even medium-term possibility (for the Koreas).”

“Given this situation, the question is whether non-unification means continuation of the status quo or if North Korea believes it needs to act to protect itself more actively, or even preempt what it sees as possible aggression from South Korea,” Chong added.

“The former is tolerable even as North Korea seeks to increase its defensive capability, since it keeps the status quo and is better than some belief in armed unification. If the latter, then friction and even tensions with South Korea and northeast Asia will likely rise,” he warned.

Ties with China reaffirmed

Kim and Chinese leader Xi Jinping exchanged New Year’s messages on Monday, with both pledging to deepen ties in a “year of China-DPRK friendship,” according to KCNA. DPRK is the abbreviation of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the official name of North Korea.

In his letter to Xi, Kim said the two countries will “further promote exchange and visits in all fields, including politics, economy and culture, further deepen the ties of friendship and unity and intensify the cooperation in the joint struggle to safeguard regional and global peace and stability” throughout the year, according to KCNA.

In his message to Kim, Xi said that relations between the two countries had “deepened practical cooperation,” maintained “close strategic communication,” and entered “a new historical period,” according to China’s Foreign Ministry.

Spy satellites

After repeated failures, North Korea in November said it had put its first spy satellite into orbit.

Analysts said if the spacecraft works, it could provide significantly improve North Korea’s military capabilities, including enabling it to more accurately target opponents’ forces.

Kim hailed the feat, celebrating with workers at the launch site according to images put out by state media. South Korea called the launch a “clear violation” of a UN Security Council resolution that prohibits North Korea from using ballistic missile technology.

On Sunday KCNA said North Korea plans to bolster that program with three additional spy satellites in the new year.

“Based on the experience of successfully launching and operating the first reconnaissance satellite in 2023, the task of launching three additional reconnaissance satellites in 2024 was declared to vigorously promote the development of space science and technology,” the statement read.

Throughout the course of 2023, Pyongyang also launched a series of intercontinental ballistic missiles tests, including a long-range solid-fueled missile called the Hwasong-18 in December, which defense experts and regional watchers says showed a “maturing” North Korean missile program.

“While North Korea, like every country, has missile tests fail, it’s clear that the overall reliability of North Korea’s missiles is quite respectable,” Jeffrey Lewis, a professor at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, previously told CNN.

North Korea’s testing and strong rhetoric may be playing into Washington’s hands, said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.

Young Minds

Discussion about this post